Looking forward to 2019, the price trend of paper prices is unpredictable. There are reasons for the industry to look at the air and see more parties. To this end, the author collected a paper report from a securities institution, hoping to provide a reference for the industry through the perspective of the securities industry.
In the first half of the year, packaging paper was put into production capacity of nearly 5 million tons
The supply and demand relationship of each paper type is an important reference for judging the future direction of the industry's business climate, and is a key variable to determine the profitability of the industry. Therefore, the supply and demand relationship of the packaging paper industry in 2019 is first forecasted.
According to the incomplete statistics of Baichuan Information, the packaging paper industry will release nearly 5 million tons of capacity in the first half of 2019:
On the supply side, the pressure on new production capacity in 2019 is relatively high. On the demand side, Orient Securities believes that pressure still exists.
First, because of weak domestic demand and a decline in export growth, terminal demand is weak or will continue; second, because the demand side is difficult to digest new supply, the supply and demand relationship of box corrugated paper will continue to deteriorate.
Analysis of waste paper prices in 2019
On the raw material side, Orient Securities believes that the new regulations on the external waste rate will be implemented in March 2018, and the foreign waste imports will fall to zero before the end of 2020. As a result, China’s demand for foreign waste imports has continued to decline, and prices are expected to decline in 2019.
In the context of the weakening demand of the paper industry in 2019, the national waste supply can meet the demand. In 2019, the national waste price may fluctuate or fall sideways.
2019 packaging paper price analysis
Based on the above, based on the price of raw materials, the price trend of paper depends on the supply and demand relationship of each paper type. In 2019, the packaging paper will have too much capacity, and the terminal market demand will continue to decline. Therefore, the overall price of paper will show a steady trend.
According to Orient Securities, the current pattern of supply and demand in the packaging paper industry is similar to that in the previous round of 2011. Even if demand is picking up in the future, it is expected that it will take a relatively long time to digest excess capacity.
Need to be reminded that, in order to facilitate reading, the author deleted the original report on wood pulp, cultural paper, paper enterprise valuation and other aspects, and strive to show the securities industry's view on the price trend of 2019 packaging paper. Of course, its views may not be correct, and the industry is cautious.
The information is reproduced from the Internet. The purpose of this document for the purpose of transmitting more information is not to endorse its opinion or to substantiate its description.
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