As climate change brings more uncertainty to agricultural production, governments and business groups around the world are also increasingly concerned about crop yield predictions. According to the physicist organization network, an international team of people from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries proposed that climate data can help predict the failure of certain crops in the months before harvest. Related papers were published in 7 "Nature and Climate Change".
The study was led by Japan ’s National Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. The researchers found that in about one-third of the global cultivated land, there is a close relationship between temperature and soil moisture and the harvested yield of wheat and rice. The computer model can predict whether about 20% of the world's wheat and rice producing areas will fail harvest three months in advance.
They used a new crop model, combined with temperature, precipitation prediction and satellite observation data from 1983 to 2006, to analyze four crops of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. The model shows that the predictions for wheat and rice are mostly successful. For some regions where major wheat and rice exporters are located, such as Australia and Uruguay, it is possible to predict crop failures months in advance. In addition to predicting large-scale crop yield reductions caused by severe droughts and other extreme weather, the model can also predict some small changes in yield.
From a global perspective, although the prediction accuracy is only about 30%, the researchers hope to improve the prediction accuracy by improving the prediction parameters, and pointed out that only using temperature and soil moisture data can predict this level, if more precise meteorology can be used in the future Data, the predictable area will be more extensive.
Andy Charino, co-author of the paper and professor at the University of Leeds, said: "The impact of extreme climates is easier to predict than small climate changes. In many parts of the world, the model is correct even with a 5% change in production To simulate it. "
Molly Brown of the NASA Goddard Biosphere Science Laboratory explained that the role of climate in crop yields and poor harvests may be more intuitive, but it is difficult to demonstrate because social and economic factors play a major role , Including agricultural technology, chemical fertilizers, seeds and irrigation facilities, is the key to determining the output of a farm. But climatic factors will still cause differences between good and bad years. "We tried to determine how much the weather factor played a role in it. For specific crops in specific areas, it made a huge difference, especially for wheat. This paper provides us with a tool that helps to understand the economic field Sources of variability outside of. "
The research project aims to enable farmers in poor countries to achieve better harvests in good years and establish a buffer mechanism in poor years. Brown said: "We can develop a new framework for further exploration of satellite data and climate prediction models." For example, if the rice can be seeded or even planted, and the future is predicted to be a good year, farmers can obtain loans for investment Technology to make full use of the advantages of good weather, insurance companies will also reduce premiums; if the forecast is a bad year, it may be less loans and higher premiums, and make policy makers to advance measures to promote food production and invest in necessary infrastructure May function as a social safety net.
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